Broker Check

Risk Odometer

<br/>2024 I February Risk Odometer


2024 I February Risk Odometer

For the first time since January 2022, our Current Outlook has moved to its highest level, “Positive”.  Our Risk Odometer net score also moved up to +3 this month, its highest reading in over two years.  The force behind this change was the broadening out of the equity market rally that began in November.  This triggered our Breadth indicator to move from negative to positive, and our net score from +1 to +3. Four of the five indicators we monitor are now positive, thus giving us additional confirmation of the strength of the equity market.

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<br/>2024 I January Risk Odometer


2024 I January Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer improved again this month, from 0 to +1, subsequently improving our Current Outlook back to “Cautiously Positive” where it was in October.  We are not completely out of the woods given legacy warning signals, but those warning signs are dissipating and offset by the majority of indicators which are positive, leading us to be more optimistic than cautious.

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2023 I December Risk Odometer

2023 I December Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer improved from a net score of -1 in November to 0 in December.  Our Current Outlook remains at “Use Caution”.  Our indicators continue to show cross currents with some negative fundamental indicators and some positive technical indicators.  The continued conflicting signals still gives us caution. 

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2023 I November Risk Odometer

2023 I November Risk Odometer

For the first time in seven months, our Risk Odometer has changed from a net score of +1 and “Cautiously Positive” Outlook to a net score of -1 and a “Use Caution” Outlook.  The 10% correction in the stock market caused enough technical damage to warrant the change.

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2023 I October Risk Odometer

2023 I October Risk Odometer

For the sixth consecutive month, our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 with a Current Outlook of “Cautiously Positive”.  The indicators below the hood continue to paint the same picture, positive technical indicators and negative fundamental indicators with the net effect still being slightly positive.

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2023 I September Risk Odometer

2023 I September Risk Odometer

For the fifth month in a row, our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 with a Current Outlook of “Cautiously Positive”. The indicators below the hood continue to paint the same picture, positive technical indicators and negative fundamental indicators. 

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<sup><span>2023 | August Risk Odometer</span></sup>

2023 | August Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 in August, and we maintain our “Cautiously Positive” Outlook. We continue to witness negative fundamental indicators and positive technical indicators. Our positive technical...

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<sup><span>2023 | July Risk Odometer</span></sup>

2023 | July Risk Odometer

For the third month in a row, our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 in July, and we maintain our “Cautiously Positive” Outlook.  We continue to witness negative fundamental indicators and positive technical...

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<sup><span>2023 | June Risk Odometer</span></sup>

2023 | June Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 in June, and we maintain our “Cautiously Positive” Outlook.  For the second month in over a year we do not have a defensive outlook as our timelier technical indicators remain...

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<sup><span>2023 | May Risk Odometer</span></sup>

2023 | May Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved up one point from 0 to 1 forcing us to move our Current Outlook to “Cautiously Positive”.  This has been the first time in over a year that our Risk Odometer has registered a positive reading. We...

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<sup><span>2023 | April Risk Odometer</span></sup>

2023 | April Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer was unchanged in April, remaining at a net score of 0 and a Current Outlook of Use Caution.  Surprisingly the banking turmoil caused by the Silicon Valley Bank failure in March did little to impact the Risk...

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<sup><span>2023 | March Risk Odometer</span></sup>

2023 | March Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer improved again in March from -1 to 0, thus upgrading our Current Outlook from “Defensive” to “Use Caution”.  Although this is an upgrade in our net score and outlook, there are still many...

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<sup><span>2023 | February Risk Odometer</span></sup>

2023 | February Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer improved from -3 to -1 for February but our Outlook remains “Defensive”.  This is the second time our Risk Odometer has improved from -3 to -1 with the last time being in December.  In December,...

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<sup>2023 | January Risk Odometer</sup>

2023 | January Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved lower in January from -1 to -3.  Our Outlook remains “Defensive”.  Last month we had expressed hope that the stock market rally in October and November would signal better times ahead but...


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&#160;<sup>2022 | December Risk Odometer</sup>

 2022 | December Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remained unchanged for December and our Outlook remains “Defensive”. The stock market experienced a considerable rally in October and November, triggering our Technical Price Action to turn positive,...

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<sup>2022 | November Risk Odometer</sup>

2022 | November Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer net score moved up one point for November to -1 but still remains in negative territory. Our Outlook remains “Defensive”. The improvement in our net score was due to improved Technical Price...

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<sup>2022 | October Risk Odometer</sup>

2022 | October Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged in October at -2. Our Current Outlook also remains unchanged at the lowest level of “Defensive”. Our outlook moved lower to Defensive last month when our fundamental...

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<sup>2022 | September Risk Odometer</sup>

2022 | September Risk Odometer

For the first time since 2020, our Risk Odometer has moved into negative territory at -2 and our Current Outlook downgraded to its lowest level of “Defensive”. For four consecutive months we had been witnessing...

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<sup>2022 | August Risk Odometer</sup>

2022 | August Risk Odometer

For the 4th month in a row, our Risk Odometer is unchanged at 0 with a Current Outlook of “Use Caution”. While the net score and Current Outlook are unchanged, indicators under the hood...

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<sup>2022 | July Risk Odometer</sup>

2022 | July Risk Odometer

For the 3rd month in a row, our Risk Odometer is unchanged at 0 with a Current Outlook of “Use Caution”. We continue to witness conflicting signals which gives us caution. Our more...

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<sup>2022 | June Risk Odometer</sup>

2022 | June Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer is unchanged for June at net score of zero and a “Use Caution” Outlook. This more cautious outlook reflects the conflicting signals our indicators are giving us. Our...

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&#160;<sup>2022 | May Risk Odometer</sup>

 2022 | May Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved lower in May, and now, for the second time in three months, stands at 0 with a “Use Caution” outlook. This more cautious than normal outlook reflects the...

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<sup>2022 | April Risk Odometer</sup>

2022 | April Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer improved in April, with our net score moving up from +1 last month to +2 and our Current Outlook improving one level higher to “Cautiously Positive”. Our Risk...

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<sup>2022 | March Risk Odometer</sup>

2022 | March Risk Odometer

First and foremost, we want to send our thoughts and prayers to the people of Ukraine whose lives have been uprooted and their liberties stripped due to the Russian invasion of their country. We...

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<sup>2022 | February Risk Odometer</sup>

2022 | February Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved down 1 point from +5 to +4 in October. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged at its highest possible level of “Positive”. Despite the one point drop in the Risk...

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&#160;<sup>2022 | January Risk Odometer</sup>

 2022 | January Risk Odometer

Happy New Year to our Risk Odometer readers! We hope everyone had a great holiday season and off to a great 2022. Our Outlook for the beginning of 2022 remains at its highest level of...

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<sup>2021 | December Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | December Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved down 1 point from +5 to +4 in December. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged at its highest level of “Positive”. Despite the one point drop in the Risk Odometer...

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<sup>2021 | November Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | November Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved back up 1 point this month to its highest reading possible at +5. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged, also at its highest possible level of “Positive”. The warning...

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<sup>2021 | October Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | October Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved down 1 point from +5 to +4 in October. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged at its highest possible level of “Positive”. Despite the one point drop in the Risk...

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<sup>2021 | September Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | September Risk Odometer

Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our...

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<sup>2021 | August Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | August Risk Odometer

Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our “Current Outlook”. We dropped the...

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<sup>2021 | July Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | July Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remain unchanged at an elevated +4, and our Current Outlook also remain unchanged at its highest level of “Positive”. The economy continues to run red hot as life in the US returns to normal post Covid....

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<sup>2021 | June Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | June Risk Odometer

Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our...

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&#160;<sup>2021 | May Risk Odometer</sup>

 2021 | May Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved another point higher from +2 to +3 in May, and our Current Outlook remained at its highest level of “Positive”. The only negative reading in our subcomponents...

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<sup>2021 | April Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | April Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved one point higher this month to +2 and our Current Outlook also increased to “Positive”, its most optimistic level in its four-level outlook status. Our Risk...

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<sup> 2021 | March Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | March Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer and Outlook remain unchanged in March at +1 and Cautiously Positive, one level below our most positive level. Technical signals continue to remain strongly positive,...

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<sup>2021 | February Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | February Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer and Outlook remain unchanged in February at +1 and Cautiously Positive, one level above our most positive level. Technical signals continue to remain strongly...

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<sup>2021 | January Risk Odometer</sup>

2021 | January Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer begins 2021 in the same place it was last month at +1 with a Cautiously Positive Outlook. Our net Odometer reading remains positive, but our technical and...

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<sup>&#160;2020 | December Risk Odometer</sup>

 2020 | December Risk Odometer

For the first time since February, our Current Outlook moved into the top half our four-level grading scale. Moving from “Use Caution” where it had been for the...

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&#160;<sup>2020 | November Risk Odometer</sup>

 2020 | November Risk Odometer

We are moving our Current Outlook down one notch again for the second consecutive month, from “Cautiously Positive” to “Use Caution”. This is one level above our most cautious outlook...

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<sup>2020 | October Risk Odometer</sup>

2020 | October Risk Odometer

FCWS VIEW OCTOBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our outlook for October remains unchanged at “Use Caution”. Our Risk Odometer also remained unchanged on the month at +1...

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<sup>2020 | September Risk Odometer</sup>

2020 | September Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer ticked up one level from 0 to +1 for September, but our Current Outlook remained stable at “Use Caution”. While the economy has continued to improve it...

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<sup>2020 | August Risk Odometer</sup>

2020 | August Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer for August remained unchanged at 0, and our Current Outlook also remained unchanged at “Use Caution”, thereby keeping us with a defensive bias. Although these remain...

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<sup>2020 | July Risk Odometer</sup>

2020 | July Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved up two notches, from -2 to 0, subsequently moving up our Current Outlook from “Defensive” to “Use Caution”. Although the outlook has improved, it remains in...

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<sup>2020 | June Risk Odometer</sup>

2020 | June Risk Odometer

We are moving our Current Outlook down one notch again for the second consecutive month, from “Cautiously Positive” to “Use Caution”. This is one level above our most cautious outlook...

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<sup>2020 | May Risk Odometer</sup>

2020 | May Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved deep into negative territory to -3 and our Current Outlook remains at our lowest level of “Defensive” for the 2nd consecutive month. The economic and earnings...

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<sup>2020 | April Risk Odometer</sup>

2020 | April Risk Odometer

For the 3rd consecutive month, we have moved our Current Outlook down another level to “Defensive”, the lowest of four possible levels. The downgrade comes as significant price...

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<sup>&#160;2020 | March Risk Odometer</sup>

 2020 | March Risk Odometer

We are moving our Current Outlook down one notch again for the second consecutive month, from “Cautiously Positive” to “Use Caution”. This is one level above our most cautious outlook...

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<sup>&#160;2020 | February Risk Odometer</sup>

 2020 | February Risk Odometer

We have moved our Current Outlook down one notch, from “Positive” to “Cautiously Positive”. Although the coronavirus has caused volatility and fear to start the year, this is not the...

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<sup>2020 | January Risk Odometer</sup>

2020 | January Risk Odometer

Happy New Year to all our readers! I hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday season. In terms of the markets, 2019 could not have been more different from 2018, as almost every asset...

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<sup>2019 | December Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | December Risk Odometer

This month, we are introducing a new format to our Risk Odometer. Our Current Outlook Table to the right of the odometer now shows 4 categories: Positive, Cautiously Positive, Use Caution and Defensive. Our current...

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<sup>2019 | November&#160;Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | November Risk Odometer

For the first time since May, we are changing our Current Outlook from “Cautiously Positive” to “Positive”. This upgrade is the result of improvements in Technical Price Action, notably from improvements in international markets...

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<sup>2019 | September Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | September Risk Odometer

Once again, our Outlook and Risk Odometer reading remained unchanged for August at “Cautiously Positive” and +4. While on the surface nothing has changed, under the hood it has. The overall score remains unchanged, but...

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<sup>2019 | August Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | August Risk Odometer

Our Outlook and Risk Odometer reading remained unchanged for August at “Cautiously Positive” and +4. Very little has changed in our indicators and outlook over the past 6 months. The things that are positive remain... 

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<sup>2019 | July Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | July Risk Odometer

Our Outlook and Risk Odometer reading remained unchanged for July at “Cautiously Positive” and +4. All the components of the Risk Odometer remained unchanged. Overall, the data remains positive but with the current...

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<sup>2019 | June Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | June Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer moved down one notch from +5, where it had been since March, to +4 for June. This small change in the overall score has caused us to also change our Outlook one notch lower...

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<sup>2019 | April Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | April Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer improved another several notches this month, moving from +3 in March to +5. As a result, we are upgrading our Outlook for a third consecutive month to “Positive”...

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<sup>2019 | March Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | March Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer has improved another notch this month from +2 to +3. As a result, we are upgrading our Outlook for a second consecutive month from “Use Caution” to “Cautiously...

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<sup>2019 | February Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | February Risk Odometer

We have upgraded our Outlook one notch from “Defensive” to “Use Caution”. This is the result of the indicators we monitor improving as the markets improved throughout January. Technical Price Action improved to neutral and...

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<sup>2019 | January Risk Odometer</sup>

2019 | January Risk Odometer

For the first time in almost 3 years, our Risk Odometer turned Defensive! This is a substantial change and does not happen often. Historically it occurs about once every 2 years and is a leading indicator for continued...

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<sup>2018 | December&#160;Risk Odometer</sup>

2018 | December Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remained stable at +4 this month and the current outlook remains as “Cautiously Positive”. Despite the modestly high Odometer reading, many of the indicators sit near inflection points and could quickly turn from positive to negative. This means our... 

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<sup>2018 | November Risk Odometer</sup>

2018 | November Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer had its first move lower in many months, moving from 6 down to 4, causing our Outlook to change from “Positive” to “Cautiously Positive”. This is our first outlook...

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<sup>2018 | September Risk Odometer</sup>

2018 | September Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remained Positive and unchanged at +6 for the third consecutive month. The Odometer has had a Positive outlook since March 2016. The high reading continues to keep our big picture outlook positive. The...

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<sup>2018 | August Risk Odometer</sup>

2018 | August Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remained Positive and unchanged at +6 for August. The high reading continues to keep our big picture outlook positive. The foundation of the Odometer, The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings and...

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<sup>2018 | July Risk Odometer</sup>

2018 | July Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer turned up one notch for July to +6. The change, largely irrelevant given the high reading, was attributable to Reportable Positions going from negative to neutral. Given the high reading, the big picture...

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<sup>2018 | June Risk Odometer</sup>

2018 | June Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged for the month of June at +5. This continues to be a very high score, maintaining the positive outlook for the stock market. The foundation of the Odometer, The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings and Technical...

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<sup>2018 | April Risk Odometer</sup>

2018 | April Risk Odometer

Despite the volatility the markets have recently experienced, our Risk Odometer again remained stable in bullish territory at +4, unchanged from the previous month. The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings, Technical Price...

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<sup>2018 | February Risk Odometer</sup>

2018 | February Risk Odometer

Despite the volatility the markets experienced in February, our Risk Odometer remained stable in bullish territory at +4. The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings, Technical Price Action) continue to remain positive. Without a deterioration in these, the...

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<sup>2018 | January Risk Odometer</sup>

2018 | January Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer remained stable in bullish territory at +4 for the third consecutive month. Our Odometer has been in a bullish state since mid-March, 2016. Given the current strength in the Big Three underlying components (Economic Indicators, Earnings...

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<sup>2017 | November&#160;Risk Odometer</sup>

2017 | November Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer dropped one notch in November from +5 to +4 but remains fully in bullish territory, giving us a full equity allocation in our tactical strategies. The drop came from the Reportable Positions Category but it...

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<sup>2017 | October Risk Odometer</sup>

2017 | October Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer continues to remain fully in bullish territory, giving us a full equity allocation in our tactical strategies. Despite the horrific hurricanes in October, the net odometer reading was unchanged from...

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<sup>2017 | September Risk Odometer</sup>

2017 | September Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer continues to remain fully into bullish territory, giving our equity strategies a full equity allocation. The main drivers (Economic Indicators, Earnings, Technical Price Action) continue to remain in a firm, positive...

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<sup>2017 | August Risk Odometer</sup>

2017 | August Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer (below) continues to remain fully into bullish territory, giving our equity strategies a full equity allocation. The main drivers of our risk odometer (Economic Indicators, Earnings, Technical Price Action) continue to remain in a firm, positive...

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<sup>2017 | June Risk Odometer</sup>

2017 | June Risk Odometer

Full Steam Ahead! The Equity Market Risk Odometer finished the month with a very rare, all 7 categories in positive territory. Readings this high have only occurred 2% of the time in a 30-year history of the indicators. Higher odometer readings display more confirming signals...

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<sup>2017 | May Risk Odometer</sup>

2017 | May Risk Odometer

The Equity Market Risk Odometer finished the month was a net reading of +6. Readings this high are historically rare (<5%) and associated with higher probabilities of positive equity market price action going forward. All...

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<sup>2017 | April Risk Odometer</sup>

2017 | April Risk Odometer

The Equity Market Risk Odometer finished the month was a net reading of +6, well into positive territory and continuing to signal strong underlying conditions for equity markets. The odometer’s Four Core Indicators...

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<sup>2017 | March Risk Odometer</sup>

2017 | March Risk Odometer

The month of March was dominated by two main events, the failure of the healthcare bill and the raising of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. Neither of these events...

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