Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer and Current Outlook remain unchanged for April at +2 and “Positive”.  Despite a volatile March stemming from the Iran War, the noise was not enough to change our outlook.  We view March’s market volatility as noise rather than fundamental changes that trigger portfolio changes.

For the first time in nine months, our Risk Odometer moved lower, from +3 to +2.  Despite the move lower, our Risk Odometer remains in bullish territory, keeping our Current Outlook at its highest level of “Positive.”  Causing the Risk Odometer to move lower was a spike in volatility, caused by the war in Iran that started on February 28th.

For the eighth consecutive month, our Risk Odometer remains at +3 and our Current Outlook at its highest level of “Positive”.  The consistency in our Risk Odometer and outlook in positive territory is not unusual.  It is common for bull markets to stay elevated for long periods of time.

Happy New Year!  While the calendar year has changed our Risk Odometer remains the same at +3 with a “Positive” outlook.  For the seventh consecutive month, our Risk Odometer score and Current Outlook have remained in bullish territory.  Since our Risk Odometer has remained so stable for such an extended period of time, we felt that expanding on our bullish outlook for what we see in store for 2026 would be warranted.

The Risk Odometer remained at +3 yet again and our Outlook at its highest level of “Positive” for the six consecutive month.  Very little has changed in the past month to cause changes in our outlook.  The recent government shutdown clouded some things but did not have a material impact on the stock market.  Until risks on our radar significantly rise, or unforeseen ones materialize, we remain bullish.

The Risk Odometer continues to confirm the recent strength in the stock market.  It remains at +3 and our Outlook at his highest level of “Positive” for the fifth consecutive month this year.

For the fourth consecutive month, the Risk Odometer remained at +3 with our outlook at his highest level of “Positive”. Markets remain on a slow, steady grind higher supported by strong corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates in September. They are projecting two more cuts this year. The indicators we follow have remained remarkably stable for the past quarter, which is common in the recent low-volatility environment.

For the 3rd month in a row, the Risk Odometer remained stable at +3.
Our outlook remains at it highest level of “Positive.”

The Risk Odometer remained stable at +3 with a “Positive” Current Outlook. The outlook improved last month to its highest level after a surge in warning signals following the introduction of higher-than-expected tariffs in April. The markets have traded very well following peak tariff fears and our Risk Odometer is confirming.

For the second consecutive month our Risk Odometer moved higher, from +1 to +3 this month. We also upgraded our Current Outlook to its highest reading of “Positive.” Our Outlook is now back to where it was in March prior the beginning of the tariff saga that started on Liberation Day in April.

Our Risk Odometer moved higher from -1 last month to +1, causing us to move our outlook back to “Cautiously Positive”, where it had been only a few months ago. When we moved our outlook down last month we cautioned that the Odometer could be volatile going forward given the fast-changing tariff policies was having on the markets, and the fact that many of our indicators were sitting near inflection points.

Our Risk Odometer moved lower from +1 to -1 this month, causing us to further downgrade our outlook to its most cautious level of “Defensive”. The tariff saga wreaked havoc on markets in April negatively impacting the Risk Odometer.

Our Risk Odometer moved down from +3 to +1 this month, causing us to downgrade our outlook from “Positive” to “Cautiously Positive”.  The downgrade in our Risk Odometer and Outlook is primarily related to heightened volatility related to tariffs.

Our Risk Odometer moved down from +4 to +3 this month but our Current Outlook remains unchanged at his highest level of “Positive”.  The tick down in our net Risk Odometer score can be credited toward heighted volatility which began towards the end of February and continued into March.  This increase in volatility did not have enough of an impact on other indicators to change our outlook. 

Political and economic uncertainty stemming from Trump’s tariff policy is the main culprit of recent stock market volatility.  Markets hate uncertainty, and back-and-forth tariff policies are creating a very uncertain future.

Our Risk Odometer score moved up from +3 to +4 this month, the first change in over a year.  Our Current Outlook remains at its highest level of highest level of “Positive,” a level it has also consistently been for over a year.  The improvement in the Risk Odometer can be credited to an improvement in our Economic Indicators signal.

Although our Current Outlook has remained stable, a lot has recently transpired recently which is having sizable market impacts.  The two most notable developments have been…

Happy New Year!  While the year has changed, our Risk Odometer remains pegged at +3 with a “Positive” Outlook for the 12^th consecutive month.  This consistency is common in steady climbing bull markets, an environment which we have experienced for the past few years.

Our Risk Odometer remained at +3 and our outlook “Positive” for yet another consecutive month.  Strong equity markets, which have been the norm for the past few years, can be boring for reporting risk factors because we are not identifying many.  Though boring for risk reporting, it is typically positive for investors account values.

Our Risk Odometer remained at +3 with a Positive Outlook for November, consistent in its score and outlook since February of this year.  Given the recent consistency of the Risk Odometer coupled with the rarity and divisiveness of the recent presidential election, we wanted to share our opinions on how the election may impact markets going forward.

Our Risk Odometer remained unchanged at +3 in October with the Current Outlook also unchanged at Positive.  There have been minor changes throughout the year in the Risk Odometer’s net score, but they have been perceived as noise.  The Current Outlook, which is typically steadier, has remained constant at its highest outlook of Positive.  It has been Positive all year.

Our Risk Odometer moved one point lower from +3 to +2 reflecting the increase of volatility witnessed in the beginning of August.  Despite the reduced score the Current Outlook remains Positive given the number of positive signals that still outweigh the negative ones.

Our Risk Odometer moved one point lower from +3 to +2 reflecting the increase of volatility witnessed in the beginning of August.  Despite the reduced score the Current Outlook remains Positive given the number of positive signals that still outweigh the negative ones.

For the sixth consecutive month, our Risk Odometer remains unchanged and deep into positive territory at +3 with a Positive Outlook.  All of the individual indicators also remain unchanged for the sixth consecutive month.

The lack of change in our Risk Odometer is common when the economy chugs along in a resilient manner as it has been this year.  Despite high interest rates and elevated inflation, the economy continues to grow, company earnings continue to grow, and the labor market remains healthy.  The steady Positive Outlook in our Risk Odometer is reflective of the resilient economy which has continued to power the stock market higher this year.

For the fifth consecutive month, our Risk Odometer remains unchanged and deep into positive territory at +3 with a Positive Outlook.  All of the individual indicators also remain unchanged for the fifth
consecutive month.

The lack of change in our Risk Odometer is common when the economy chugs along in a resilient manner as it has been this year.  Despite elevated interest rates and inflation, the economy continues to grow, company earnings continue to grow, and the labor market remains healthy.  The steady Positive Outlook in our Risk Odometer is reflective of the resilient economy which has powered the stock market
higher this year.

For the fourth consecutive month, our Risk Odometer score again remains deeply in positive territory at +3 and our Current Outlook remains at its highest level, “Positive”.  All of the individual indicators remained unchanged from the previous month.  Despite last month’s volatility in the stock market, we continue to be optimistic on economic growth.  We believe strong economic growth will support future stock market gains.

For the third consecutive month, our Risk Odometer score remains deeply in positive territory at +3 and our Current Outlook remains at its highest level of “Positive”.  All of the individual indicators remained unchanged from the previous month.  We continue to grow more optimistic on the economy which we believe should support the markets going forward. 

For the second consecutive month, our Risk Odometer score deeply in positive territory at +3 and our Current Outlook remains at its highest level of “Positive”. All of the individual indicators remained unchanged from the previous month. Despite our Risk Odometer remaining unchanged this month, we are growing more optimistic on the markets.

For the first time since January 2022, our Current Outlook has moved to its highest level, “Positive”.  Our Risk Odometer net score also moved up to +3 this month, its highest reading in over two years.  The force behind this change was the broadening out of the equity market rally that began in November.  This triggered our Breadth indicator to move from negative to positive, and our net score from +1 to +3. Four of the five indicators we monitor are now positive, thus giving us additional confirmation of the strength of the equity market.

Our Risk Odometer improved again this month, from 0 to +1, subsequently improving our Current Outlook back to “Cautiously Positive” where it was in October.  We are not completely out of the woods given legacy warning signals, but those warning signs are dissipating and offset by the majority of indicators which are positive, leading us to be more optimistic than cautious.

Our Risk Odometer improved from a net score of -1 in November to 0 in December.  Our Current Outlook remains at “Use Caution”.  Our indicators continue to show cross currents with some negative fundamental indicators and some positive technical indicators.  The continued conflicting signals still gives us caution. 

For the first time in seven months, our Risk Odometer has changed from a net score of +1 and “Cautiously Positive” Outlook to a net score of -1 and a “Use Caution” Outlook.  The 10% correction in the stock market caused enough technical damage to warrant the change.

For the sixth consecutive month, our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 with a Current Outlook of “Cautiously Positive”.  The indicators below the hood continue to paint the same picture, positive technical indicators and negative fundamental indicators with the net effect still being slightly positive.

For the fifth month in a row, our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 with a Current Outlook of “Cautiously Positive”. The indicators below the hood continue to paint the same picture, positive technical indicators and negative fundamental indicators. 

Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 in August, and we maintain our “Cautiously Positive” Outlook. We continue to witness negative fundamental indicators and positive technical indicators. Our positive technical...

For the third month in a row, our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 in July, and we maintain our “Cautiously Positive” Outlook.  We continue to witness negative fundamental indicators and positive technical...

Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged at +1 in June, and we maintain our “Cautiously Positive” Outlook.  For the second month in over a year we do not have a defensive outlook as our timelier technical indicators remain...

Our Risk Odometer moved up one point from 0 to 1 forcing us to move our Current Outlook to “Cautiously Positive”.  This has been the first time in over a year that our Risk Odometer has registered a positive reading. We...

Our Risk Odometer was unchanged in April, remaining at a net score of 0 and a Current Outlook of Use Caution.  Surprisingly the banking turmoil caused by the Silicon Valley Bank failure in March did little to impact the Risk...

Our Risk Odometer improved again in March from -1 to 0, thus upgrading our Current Outlook from “Defensive” to “Use Caution”.  Although this is an upgrade in our net score and outlook, there are still many...

Our Risk Odometer improved from -3 to -1 for February but our Outlook remains “Defensive”.  This is the second time our Risk Odometer has improved from -3 to -1 with the last time being in December.  In December,...

Our Risk Odometer moved lower in January from -1 to -3.  Our Outlook remains “Defensive”.  Last month we had expressed hope that the stock market rally in October and November would signal better times ahead but...

Our Risk Odometer remained unchanged for December and our Outlook remains “Defensive”. The stock market experienced a considerable rally in October and November, triggering our Technical Price Action to turn positive,...

Our Risk Odometer net score moved up one point for November to -1 but still remains in negative territory. Our Outlook remains “Defensive”. The improvement in our net score was due to improved Technical Price...

Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged in October at -2. Our Current Outlook also remains unchanged at the lowest level of “Defensive”. Our outlook moved lower to Defensive last month when our fundamental...

For the first time since 2020, our Risk Odometer has moved into negative territory at -2 and our Current Outlook downgraded to its lowest level of “Defensive”. For four consecutive months we had been witnessing...

For the 4th month in a row, our Risk Odometer is unchanged at 0 with a Current Outlook of “Use Caution”. While the net score and Current Outlook are unchanged, indicators under the hood...

For the 3rd month in a row, our Risk Odometer is unchanged at 0 with a Current Outlook of “Use Caution”. We continue to witness conflicting signals which gives us caution. Our more...

Our Risk Odometer is unchanged for June at net score of zero and a “Use Caution” Outlook. This more cautious outlook reflects the conflicting signals our indicators are giving us. Our...

Our Risk Odometer moved lower in May, and now, for the second time in three months, stands at 0 with a “Use Caution” outlook. This more cautious than normal outlook reflects the...

Our Risk Odometer improved in April, with our net score moving up from +1 last month to +2 and our Current Outlook improving one level higher to “Cautiously Positive”. Our Risk...

First and foremost, we want to send our thoughts and prayers to the people of Ukraine whose lives have been uprooted and their liberties stripped due to the Russian invasion of their country. We...

Our Risk Odometer moved down 1 point from +5 to +4 in October. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged at its highest possible level of “Positive”. Despite the one point drop in the Risk...

Happy New Year to our Risk Odometer readers! We hope everyone had a great holiday season and off to a great 2022. Our Outlook for the beginning of 2022 remains at its highest level of...

Our Risk Odometer moved down 1 point from +5 to +4 in December. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged at its highest level of “Positive”. Despite the one point drop in the Risk Odometer...

Our Risk Odometer moved back up 1 point this month to its highest reading possible at +5. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged, also at its highest possible level of “Positive”. The warning...

Our Risk Odometer moved down 1 point from +5 to +4 in October. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged at its highest possible level of “Positive”. Despite the one point drop in the Risk...

Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our...

Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our “Current Outlook”. We dropped the...

Our Risk Odometer remain unchanged at an elevated +4, and our Current Outlook also remain unchanged at its highest level of “Positive”. The economy continues to run red hot as life in the US returns to normal post Covid....

Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our...

Our Risk Odometer moved another point higher from +2 to +3 in May, and our Current Outlook remained at its highest level of “Positive”. The only negative reading in our subcomponents...

Our Risk Odometer moved one point higher this month to +2 and our Current Outlook also increased to “Positive”, its most optimistic level in its four-level outlook status. Our Risk...

Our Risk Odometer and Outlook remain unchanged in March at +1 and Cautiously Positive, one level below our most positive level. Technical signals continue to remain strongly positive,...

Our Risk Odometer and Outlook remain unchanged in February at +1 and Cautiously Positive, one level above our most positive level. Technical signals continue to remain strongly...

Our Risk Odometer begins 2021 in the same place it was last month at +1 with a Cautiously Positive Outlook. Our net Odometer reading remains positive, but our technical and...

For the first time since February, our Current Outlook moved into the top half our four-level grading scale. Moving from “Use Caution” where it had been for the...

We are moving our Current Outlook down one notch again for the second consecutive month, from “Cautiously Positive” to “Use Caution”. This is one level above our most cautious outlook...

FCWS VIEW OCTOBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our outlook for October remains unchanged at “Use Caution”. Our Risk Odometer also remained unchanged on the month at +1...

Our Risk Odometer ticked up one level from 0 to +1 for September, but our Current Outlook remained stable at “Use Caution”. While the economy has continued to improve it...

Our Risk Odometer for August remained unchanged at 0, and our Current Outlook also remained unchanged at “Use Caution”, thereby keeping us with a defensive bias. Although these remain...

Our Risk Odometer moved up two notches, from -2 to 0, subsequently moving up our Current Outlook from “Defensive” to “Use Caution”. Although the outlook has improved, it remains in...

We are moving our Current Outlook down one notch again for the second consecutive month, from “Cautiously Positive” to “Use Caution”. This is one level above our most cautious outlook...

Our Risk Odometer moved deep into negative territory to -3 and our Current Outlook remains at our lowest level of “Defensive” for the 2nd consecutive month. The economic and earnings...

For the 3rd consecutive month, we have moved our Current Outlook down another level to “Defensive”, the lowest of four possible levels. The downgrade comes as significant price...

We are moving our Current Outlook down one notch again for the second consecutive month, from “Cautiously Positive” to “Use Caution”. This is one level above our most cautious outlook...

We have moved our Current Outlook down one notch, from “Positive” to “Cautiously Positive”. Although the coronavirus has caused volatility and fear to start the year, this is not the...

Happy New Year to all our readers! I hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday season. In terms of the markets, 2019 could not have been more different from 2018, as almost every asset...

This month, we are introducing a new format to our Risk Odometer. Our Current Outlook Table to the right of the odometer now shows 4 categories: Positive, Cautiously Positive, Use Caution and Defensive. Our current...

For the first time since May, we are changing our Current Outlook from “Cautiously Positive” to “Positive”. This upgrade is the result of improvements in Technical Price Action, notably from improvements in international markets...

Once again, our Outlook and Risk Odometer reading remained unchanged for August at “Cautiously Positive” and +4. While on the surface nothing has changed, under the hood it has. The overall score remains unchanged, but...

Our Outlook and Risk Odometer reading remained unchanged for August at “Cautiously Positive” and +4. Very little has changed in our indicators and outlook over the past 6 months. The things that are positive remain... 

Our Outlook and Risk Odometer reading remained unchanged for July at “Cautiously Positive” and +4. All the components of the Risk Odometer remained unchanged. Overall, the data remains positive but with the current...

Our Risk Odometer moved down one notch from +5, where it had been since March, to +4 for June. This small change in the overall score has caused us to also change our Outlook one notch lower...

Our Risk Odometer improved another several notches this month, moving from +3 in March to +5. As a result, we are upgrading our Outlook for a third consecutive month to “Positive”...

Our Risk Odometer has improved another notch this month from +2 to +3. As a result, we are upgrading our Outlook for a second consecutive month from “Use Caution” to “Cautiously...

We have upgraded our Outlook one notch from “Defensive” to “Use Caution”. This is the result of the indicators we monitor improving as the markets improved throughout January. Technical Price Action improved to neutral and...

For the first time in almost 3 years, our Risk Odometer turned Defensive! This is a substantial change and does not happen often. Historically it occurs about once every 2 years and is a leading indicator for continued...

Our Risk Odometer remained stable at +4 this month and the current outlook remains as “Cautiously Positive”. Despite the modestly high Odometer reading, many of the indicators sit near inflection points and could quickly turn from positive to negative. This means our... 

Our Risk Odometer had its first move lower in many months, moving from 6 down to 4, causing our Outlook to change from “Positive” to “Cautiously Positive”. This is our first outlook...

Our Risk Odometer remained Positive and unchanged at +6 for the third consecutive month. The Odometer has had a Positive outlook since March 2016. The high reading continues to keep our big picture outlook positive. The...

Our Risk Odometer remained Positive and unchanged at +6 for August. The high reading continues to keep our big picture outlook positive. The foundation of the Odometer, The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings and...

Our Risk Odometer turned up one notch for July to +6. The change, largely irrelevant given the high reading, was attributable to Reportable Positions going from negative to neutral. Given the high reading, the big picture...

Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged for the month of June at +5. This continues to be a very high score, maintaining the positive outlook for the stock market. The foundation of the Odometer, The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings and Technical...

Despite the volatility the markets have recently experienced, our Risk Odometer again remained stable in bullish territory at +4, unchanged from the previous month. The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings, Technical Price...

Despite the volatility the markets experienced in February, our Risk Odometer remained stable in bullish territory at +4. The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings, Technical Price Action) continue to remain positive. Without a deterioration in these, the...

Our Risk Odometer remained stable in bullish territory at +4 for the third consecutive month. Our Odometer has been in a bullish state since mid-March, 2016. Given the current strength in the Big Three underlying components (Economic Indicators, Earnings...

Our Risk Odometer dropped one notch in November from +5 to +4 but remains fully in bullish territory, giving us a full equity allocation in our tactical strategies. The drop came from the Reportable Positions Category but it...

Our Risk Odometer continues to remain fully in bullish territory, giving us a full equity allocation in our tactical strategies. Despite the horrific hurricanes in October, the net odometer reading was unchanged from...

Our Risk Odometer continues to remain fully into bullish territory, giving our equity strategies a full equity allocation. The main drivers (Economic Indicators, Earnings, Technical Price Action) continue to remain in a firm, positive...

Our Risk Odometer (below) continues to remain fully into bullish territory, giving our equity strategies a full equity allocation. The main drivers of our risk odometer (Economic Indicators, Earnings, Technical Price Action) continue to remain in a firm, positive...

Full Steam Ahead! The Equity Market Risk Odometer finished the month with a very rare, all 7 categories in positive territory. Readings this high have only occurred 2% of the time in a 30-year history of the indicators. Higher odometer readings display more confirming signals...

The Equity Market Risk Odometer finished the month was a net reading of +6. Readings this high are historically rare (<5%) and associated with higher probabilities of positive equity market price action going forward. All...

The Equity Market Risk Odometer finished the month was a net reading of +6, well into positive territory and continuing to signal strong underlying conditions for equity markets. The odometer’s Four Core Indicators...

The month of March was dominated by two main events, the failure of the healthcare bill and the raising of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. Neither of these events...