2026 | April Risk Odometer

Our Risk Odometer and Current Outlook remain unchanged for April at +2 and “Positive”.  Despite a volatile March stemming from the Iran War, the noise was not enough to change our outlook.

We view March’s market volatility as noise rather than fundamental changes that trigger portfolio changes.  Deciphering between noise and fundamental changes is challenging, especially in the midst of a controversial war in an era of 24-hour news and growing social media popularity.  There is a steady flow of breaking news and wide-ranging opinions.  Becoming emotional is nearly impossible to avoid but divorcing them from our investment decisions is necessary for successful investing.  This is why we lean on the objective indicators from the Risk Odometer.

Double-digit stock market losses was the outcome, yet double digits losses are episodes that often occur annually.  They should be expected.  They are more often noise than the beginning of something more severe, especially when they are political in nature and not accompanied with a contracting economy. 

Our stance has been, and continues to be, that the recent volatility is noise.  Our recommendation is to ignore it or view it as opportunistic.  Although more complex than the tariff saga in 2025, we have drawn similar parallels to how that saga created short-term opportunities in the markets.  Our opinion is that the Trump administration will find an off-ramp to wind down the war because they are more concerned about mid-term elections, approval ratings, and the economic impact of elevated gas prices than eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities or regime change.  The American public is not supportive of escalating the war.  We do not believe Trump is willing to sacrifice power and legacy, which he stands to lose, if he escalates matters.  Therefore, the off-ramp seems most probable to us.

As always, we continue to believe our Risk Odometer provides guidance in making better investment decisions because it keeps us objective and disciplined.  We use this methodology and advise our clients to do the same.  Emotions are our enemies in investing. 

It is important to understand that our Risk Odometer is not designed to anticipate small to medium corrections, typically those in the 5-15% range.  Instead, it monitors for conditions which have typically preceded larger corrections.  We believe trying to anticipate small to medium corrections sounds attractive but more often results in lost opportunity than savings.

The Equity Market Risk Odometer is our guide for judging risk in the equity market. It is used as a guide for investment decisions in our proprietary investment strategies. It is composed of various indicators based on leading economic indicators, earnings, technical price action, breadth, and volatility. Its score can range from +5 to -5. Readings greater than one are positive and readings less than or equal to zero are negative.

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_{This information does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the needs of any specific person who may view this information. Statements, opinions, and forecasts made represent a particular observation and assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Statements regarding future prospects may not be realized and may differ materially from actual events or results. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.}

_{FC Wealth Solutions and its representatives do not provide legal or tax advice. You may want to consult a legal or tax advisor regarding any legal or tax information as it relates to your personal circumstances.}

_{Michael Fickell is an investment advisor representative of FC Wealth Solutions}

_{Securities and investment advisory services offered through FC Wealth Solutions, a registered investment advisor.}

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