Risk Odometer
2022 | June Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer is unchanged for June at net score of zero and a “Use Caution” Outlook. This more cautious outlook reflects the conflicting signals our indicators are giving us. Our more-timely technical...
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2022 | May Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer moved lower in May, and now, for the second time in three months, stands at 0 with a “Use Caution” outlook. This more cautious than normal outlook reflects the deterioration we have witnessed in technical...
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2021 | October Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer moved down 1 point from +5 to +4 in October. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged at its highest possible level of “Positive”. Despite the one point drop in the Risk Odometer economic growth remains robust and our...
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2021 | September Risk Odometer
Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our “Current Outlook”. We dropped the...
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2021 | August Risk Odometer
Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our “Current Outlook”. We dropped the...
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2021 | July Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer remain unchanged at an elevated +4, and our Current Outlook also remain unchanged at its highest level of “Positive”. The economy continues to run red hot as life in the US returns to normal post Covid....
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2021 | June Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JUNE 2021 | OUTLOOK: POSITIVE Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our...
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2021 | May Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW MAY 2021 | OUTLOOK: POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer moved another point higher from +2 to +3 in May, and our Current Outlook remained at its highest level of “Positive”. The only negative reading in our subcomponents...
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2021 | April Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW APRIL 2021 | OUTLOOK: POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer moved one point higher this month to +2 and our Current Outlook also increased to “Positive”, its most optimistic level in its four-level outlook status. Our Risk...
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2021 | March Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW MARCH 2021 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer and Outlook remain unchanged in March at +1 and Cautiously Positive, one level below our most positive level. Technical signals continue to remain strongly positive,...
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2021 | February Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW FEBRUARY 2021 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer and Outlook remain unchanged in February at +1 and Cautiously Positive, one level above our most positive level. Technical signals continue to remain strongly...
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2021 | January Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JANUARY 2021 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer begins 2021 in the same place it was last month at +1 with a Cautiously Positive Outlook. Our net Odometer reading remains positive, but our technical and...
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2020 | December Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW DECEMBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE For the first time since February, our Current Outlook moved into the top half our four-level grading scale. Moving from “Use Caution” where it had been for the...
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2020 | November Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW NOVEMBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION For the third consecutive month, our Outlook remains at “Use Caution” and our Risk Odometer remains at +1. Economic fundamentals and market technicals continue to give us...
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2020 | October Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW OCTOBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our outlook for October remains unchanged at “Use Caution”. Our Risk Odometer also remained unchanged on the month at +1. Economic fundamentals and market technicals continue to...
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2020 | September Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW SEPTEMBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our Risk Odometer ticked up one level from 0 to +1 for September, but our Current Outlook remained stable at “Use Caution”. While the economy has continued to improve it...
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2020 | August Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW AUGUST 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our Risk Odometer for August remained unchanged at 0, and our Current Outlook also remained unchanged at “Use Caution”, thereby keeping us with a defensive bias. Although these...
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2020 | July Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JULY 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our Risk Odometer moved up two notches, from -2 to 0, subsequently moving up our Current Outlook from “Defensive” to “Use Caution”. Although the outlook has improved,...
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2020 | June Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JUNE 2020 | OUTLOOK: DEFENSIVE For the 3rd consecutive month, our Current Outlook remained at our lowest level of “Defensive”. Our Risk Odometer reading did move up one notch from -3 to -2 this month as our...
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2020 | May Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW MAY 2020 | OUTLOOK: DEFENSIVE Our Risk Odometer moved deep into negative territory to -3 and our Current Outlook remains at our lowest level of “Defensive” for the 2nd consecutive month. The economic and earnings...
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2020 | April Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW APRIL 2020 | OUTLOOK: DEFENSIVE For the 3rd consecutive month, we have moved our Current Outlook down another level to “Defensive”, the lowest of four possible levels. The downgrade comes as significant price...
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2020 | March Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW MARCH 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION We are moving our Current Outlook down one notch again for the second consecutive month, from “Cautiously Positive” to “Use Caution”. This is one level above our most...
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2020 | February Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW FEBRUARY 2020 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE We have moved our Current Outlook down one notch, from “Positive” to “Cautiously Positive”. Although the coronavirus has caused volatility and fear to start...
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2020 | January Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JANUARY 2020 | OUTLOOK: POSITIVE Happy New Year to all our readers! I hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday season. In terms of the markets, 2019 could not have been more different from 2018, as almost every asset class...
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