Risk Odometer
The Equity Market Risk Odometer is our guide for judging risk in the equity market. It is used as a guide for investment decisions in our proprietary investment strategies. It is composed of various indicators based on leading economic indicators, earnings, technical price action, breadth and volatility. Its score can range from +5 to -5. Readings greater than 1 are positive and readings less than or equal to zero are negative.
2023 | March Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer improved again in March from -1 to 0, thus upgrading our Current Outlook from “Defensive” to “Use Caution”. Although this is an upgrade in our net score and outlook, there are still many...
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2023 | February Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer improved from -3 to -1 for February but our Outlook remains “Defensive”. This is the second time our Risk Odometer has improved from -3 to -1 with the last time being in December. In December,...
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2023 | January Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer moved lower in January from -1 to -3. Our Outlook remains “Defensive”. Last month we had expressed hope that the stock market rally in October and November would signal better times ahead but...
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2022 | December Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer remained unchanged for December and our Outlook remains “Defensive”. The stock market experienced a considerable rally in October and November, triggering our Technical Price Action to turn positive,...
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2022 | November Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer net score moved up one point for November to -1 but still remains in negative territory. Our Outlook remains “Defensive”. The improvement in our net score was due to improved Technical Price...
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2022 | October Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged in October at -2. Our Current Outlook also remains unchanged at the lowest level of “Defensive”. Our outlook moved lower to Defensive last month when our fundamental...
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2022 | Septemeber Risk Odometer
For the first time since 2020, our Risk Odometer has moved into negative territory at -2 and our Current Outlook downgraded to its lowest level of “Defensive”. For four consecutive months we had been witnessing...
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2022 | August Risk Odometer
For the 4th month in a row, our Risk Odometer is unchanged at 0 with a Current Outlook of “Use Caution”. While the net score and Current Outlook are unchanged, indicators under the hood are changing, reflecting...
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2022 | July Risk Odometer
For the 3rd month in a row, our Risk Odometer is unchanged at 0 with a Current Outlook of “Use Caution”. We continue to witness conflicting signals which gives us caution. Our more sensitive and timely technical...
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2022 | June Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer is unchanged for June at net score of zero and a “Use Caution” Outlook. This more cautious outlook reflects the conflicting signals our indicators are giving us. Our more-timely technical...
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2022 | May Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer moved lower in May, and now, for the second time in three months, stands at 0 with a “Use Caution” outlook. This more cautious than normal outlook reflects the deterioration we have witnessed in technical...
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2021 | October Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer moved down 1 point from +5 to +4 in October. Our Current Outlook remained unchanged at its highest possible level of “Positive”. Despite the one point drop in the Risk Odometer economic growth remains robust and our...
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2021 | September Risk Odometer
Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our “Current Outlook”. We dropped the...
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2021 | August Risk Odometer
Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our “Current Outlook”. We dropped the...
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2021 | July Risk Odometer
Our Risk Odometer remain unchanged at an elevated +4, and our Current Outlook also remain unchanged at its highest level of “Positive”. The economy continues to run red hot as life in the US returns to normal post Covid....
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2021 | June Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JUNE 2021 | OUTLOOK: POSITIVE Special Note About a Change in the Risk Odometer: We have changed our Risk Odometer from seven underlying indicators to five. This will not have an impact on the net takeaway or our...
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2021 | May Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW MAY 2021 | OUTLOOK: POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer moved another point higher from +2 to +3 in May, and our Current Outlook remained at its highest level of “Positive”. The only negative reading in our subcomponents...
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2021 | April Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW APRIL 2021 | OUTLOOK: POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer moved one point higher this month to +2 and our Current Outlook also increased to “Positive”, its most optimistic level in its four-level outlook status. Our Risk...
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2021 | March Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW MARCH 2021 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer and Outlook remain unchanged in March at +1 and Cautiously Positive, one level below our most positive level. Technical signals continue to remain strongly positive,...
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2021 | February Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW FEBRUARY 2021 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer and Outlook remain unchanged in February at +1 and Cautiously Positive, one level above our most positive level. Technical signals continue to remain strongly...
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2021 | January Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JANUARY 2021 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE Our Risk Odometer begins 2021 in the same place it was last month at +1 with a Cautiously Positive Outlook. Our net Odometer reading remains positive, but our technical and...
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2020 | December Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW DECEMBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE For the first time since February, our Current Outlook moved into the top half our four-level grading scale. Moving from “Use Caution” where it had been for the...
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2020 | November Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW NOVEMBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION For the third consecutive month, our Outlook remains at “Use Caution” and our Risk Odometer remains at +1. Economic fundamentals and market technicals continue to give us...
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2020 | October Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW OCTOBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our outlook for October remains unchanged at “Use Caution”. Our Risk Odometer also remained unchanged on the month at +1. Economic fundamentals and market technicals continue to...
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2020 | September Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW SEPTEMBER 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our Risk Odometer ticked up one level from 0 to +1 for September, but our Current Outlook remained stable at “Use Caution”. While the economy has continued to improve it...
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2020 | August Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW AUGUST 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our Risk Odometer for August remained unchanged at 0, and our Current Outlook also remained unchanged at “Use Caution”, thereby keeping us with a defensive bias. Although these...
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2020 | July Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JULY 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION Our Risk Odometer moved up two notches, from -2 to 0, subsequently moving up our Current Outlook from “Defensive” to “Use Caution”. Although the outlook has improved,...
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2020 | June Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JUNE 2020 | OUTLOOK: DEFENSIVE For the 3rd consecutive month, our Current Outlook remained at our lowest level of “Defensive”. Our Risk Odometer reading did move up one notch from -3 to -2 this month as our...
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2020 | May Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW MAY 2020 | OUTLOOK: DEFENSIVE Our Risk Odometer moved deep into negative territory to -3 and our Current Outlook remains at our lowest level of “Defensive” for the 2nd consecutive month. The economic and earnings...
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2020 | April Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW APRIL 2020 | OUTLOOK: DEFENSIVE For the 3rd consecutive month, we have moved our Current Outlook down another level to “Defensive”, the lowest of four possible levels. The downgrade comes as significant price...
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2020 | March Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW MARCH 2020 | OUTLOOK: USE CAUTION We are moving our Current Outlook down one notch again for the second consecutive month, from “Cautiously Positive” to “Use Caution”. This is one level above our most...
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2020 | February Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW FEBRUARY 2020 | OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE We have moved our Current Outlook down one notch, from “Positive” to “Cautiously Positive”. Although the coronavirus has caused volatility and fear to start...
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2020 | January Risk Odometer
FCWS VIEW JANUARY 2020 | OUTLOOK: POSITIVE Happy New Year to all our readers! I hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday season. In terms of the markets, 2019 could not have been more different from 2018, as almost every asset class...
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