(614) 212-1015

2018 | December Risk Odometer

FCWS View December 2018 | Outlook: Cautiously Positive
Tuesday, 04 December 2018

2018 | December Risk Odometer
Current Outlook

Cautiously Positive

Our Risk Odometer remained stable at +4 this month and the current outlook remains as “Cautiously Positive”. Despite the modestly high Odometer reading, many of the indicators sit near inflection points and could quickly turn from positive to negative. This means our outlook could easily change in the coming months.

Intra-month, the Risk Odometer had dropped to +2 but recovered to +4 by month end following a sudden market turn-around at the end of November. It is key during these inflection points to monitor incoming data and remain objective. Recently, markets have moved with unprecedented speed and velocity and this can elicit many emotional responses. In these environments it is best to divorce yourself from those emotional responses and have a plan for dealing with unavoidable aspects of the markets. Ideally, these plans are disciplined and objective. This is the objective of our Risk Odometer, to provide a disciplined and objective approach and avoid emotional responses. It will never be perfect, but it will provide a structure for removing emotions from challenging decisions.

2018 | November Risk Odometer

FCWS View November 2018 | Outlook: Cautiously Positive
Thursday, 08 November 2018

2018 | November Risk Odometer
Current Outlook

Cautiously Positive

Our Risk Odometer had its first move lower in many months, moving from 6 down to 4, causing our Outlook to change from “Positive” to “Cautiously Positive”. This is our first outlook change in several years and reflects prudent risk-mitigation steps we have taken in our proprietary strategies. Most of our indicators remain positive and we continue to have a positive outlook about the US Economy, but recent market developments have created some caution around that stance. Should the recent developments recede, we would return to a Positive outlook, and if conditions deteriorate, we would take further risk-mitigation steps and further lower the outlook. Our investment stance has always been that we do not believe in predicting the markets, rather we react to the data we know in a consistent and disciplined fashion. This stance keeps us objective and removes our emotions from the decision process. Emotions are our enemy in the challenging world of money management.

In last month’s Risk Odometer synopsis, I highlighted some of the potential risks (valuations, rising rates, trade wars) but noted they were not having a material impact on the markets. That gave way in October as equity markets experienced sharp corrections. There was no obvious reason that caused the sharp corrections. Events like this serve as a reminder that volatility should be expected and anticipated. Having a plan for dealing with inevitable fluctuations can make substantial differences to long-term returns. Our advice has always been to remain objective with consistency and discipline.

2018 | October Risk Odometer

FCWS View October 2018 | Outlook: Positive
Thursday, 11 October 2018

Current Outlook

Positive

Our Risk Odometer remained Positive and unchanged yet again at +6 for the fourth consecutive month. The Odometer has had a Positive outlook since March 2016. The high reading continues to keep our big picture outlook positive. The foundation of the Odometer, The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings and Technical Price Action), continue to confirm the positive outlook, further solidifying our stance.

 

2018 | September Risk Odometer

FCWS View September 2018 | Outlook: Positive
Wednesday, 12 September 2018

Current Outlook

Positive

Our Risk Odometer remained Positive and unchanged at +6 for the third consecutive month.  The Odometer has had a Positive outlook since March 2016.  The high reading continues to keep our big picture outlook positive.  The foundation of the Odometer, The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings and Technical Price Action), continue to confirm the positive outlook, further solidifying our stance.

 

2018 | August Risk Odometer

FCWS View August 2018 | Outlook: Positive
Wednesday, 08 August 2018

Our Risk Odometer remained Positive and unchanged at +6 for August.  The high reading continues to keep our big picture outlook positive.  The foundation of the Odometer, The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings and Technical Price Action), are confirming the positive outlook, further solidifying our stance.

2018 | July Risk Odometer

FCWS View July 2018 | Outlook: Positive
Wednesday, 11 July 2018

Our Risk Odometer turned up one notch for July to +6. The change, largely irrelevant given the high reading, was attributable to Reportable Positions going from negative to neutral.

2018 | June Risk Odometer

FCWS View June 2018
Wednesday, 13 June 2018

Our Risk Odometer remains unchanged for the month of June at +5.  This continues to be a very high score, maintaining the positive outlook for the stock market.  The foundation of the Odometer, The Big Three (Economic Indicators, Earnings and Technical Price Action) continue to maintain a positive outlook.

Contact

  • E-Mail:
    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Check us out

Interactive Brokers LLC is a registered Broker-Dealer, Futures Commission Merchant and Forex Dealer Member, regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the National Futures Association (NFA), and is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and several other self-regulatory organizations.  Interactive Brokers does not endorse or recommend any introducing brokers, third-party financial advisors or hedge funds, including FC Wealth Solutions.  Interactive Brokers provides execution and clearing services to customers.  None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation, offer, or solicitation of an offer by Interactive Brokers to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument or to engage in any specific investment strategy. Interactive Brokers makes no representation, and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided on this website.

For more information regarding Interactive Brokers, please visit www.interactivebrokers.com.

Securities offered through Fidelity and Interactive Brokers. Members FINRA/SIPC.
Copyright © 2020 FC Wealth Solutions | Admin Login | Designed by Illuminated Advisors | Powered by AdvisorFlex.